Source: DAWN, 05 July 1999 / Opinion
War clouds in the subcontinent
By Omar Kureishi
ONE thing is certain: those whipping up war hysteria will not be donning
uniforms and moving to the battle-fronts. They will remain ensconced in
their safe havens and send reluctant heroes to their death. Wars may be
hell but it is other people's hell.
NATO has won famous victory in Yugoslavia but neither President Clinton
nor Prime Minister Tony Blair nor indeed Milosevic will be changing
their residence and moving into a refugee camp, there to live with
thousands of displaced persons as terrified strangers, moving on in
convoys that lead to other refugee camps, journeys to nowhere.
The prospect of a war between Pakistan and India, unlikely though it can
never be ruled out because events can spiral out of control, is one that
will fill people on both sides with horror. It would be madness of the
first magnitude, not merely in terms of costly human lives and the
destruction but it would de-stabilise the entire region and no one can
foresee what forces would be unleashed.
That both countries have nuclear weapons is irrelevant, for their use
would leave only the dying and the dead and no one can seriously believe
that they would be considered as a military option. But even a
conventional war will leave both countries impoverished, that is, even
more impoverished than they already are. All the more reason that we do
not fall in a jingoistic trap.
The international community has so far expressed only a distant concern
and even the United Nations is unwilling to be an honest broker, a role
it has pursued with remarkable energy in East Timor, for example, at
best a local conflict with none of the ramifications of an as yet
unresolved future for Kashmir. Yet the United Nations seems unable or
unwilling to implement its own resolutions on a plebiscite to which both
Pakistan and India are committed and from which India has resiled,
citing a different set of reasons each time and now claiming that
Kashmir is "an integral part of India," sanctifying through force
majeure an unlawful occupation of a land against the wishes of its
people.
The United Nations went to war with Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait.
Desert Storm has the legal and moral backing of the United Nations as do
the sanctions imposed on Iraq which have caused untold misery. Yet it
seems strangely motionless on Kashmir. Only the innocent believe that
the world is governed by principles. When it comes to national
self-interests, there is little to differentiate between good and evil.
We can demonize a Saddam Hussain or a Milosevic but they are villains
only for the time being and if power positions change, our view of them
will also change. After all, yesterday's Afghan Mujahideen have become
today's terrorists in the perception of those who were once their
patrons. We should be under no illusions that the international
community will be guided by right and wrong.
It is not unusual to create an external diversion to overcome domestic
difficulties. But war is too heavy a price. India is due to have general
elections soon and it is apparent that electioneering has started. The
present Indian government is a caretaker one and, therefore, has no
mandate to indulge in adveturism. It is not for us to point this out to
the Indian people. It is for them to see the present hawkish posture for
what it is.
The BJP is playing its "Pakistan" card and the beating of war drums is a
transparently cynical ploy, if war hysteria can be called a ploy, to
project itself as the party that is the custodian of India's national
interests. The other parties including Sonia Gandhi's Congress, have no
intentions of being left behind. Thus the ante is being raised. No one
would like to be seen as less patriotic. One has only to watch Indian
television channels to get an idea of this war psychosis.
A more absurd example would be hard to find than for cricketers like
Kapil Dev calling for snapping of cricketing ties. This is playing to
the gallery in the cheapest sort of way. When public opinion is aflamed
and taken to the brink, the road back becomes that much more difficult.
The Indians must not reach a point of no return. Then matters may not be
in the control of the BJP and its prime minister.
There is no war hysteria in Pakistan and the Pakistani people are
viewing the events with concern but not with alarm. This does not mean
that they are indifferent to what is happening. If called upon they will
render every sacrifice. But they do not want to precipitate what will be
a no-win situation for both sides. Pakistan is prepared to talk and only
a dialogue is the way to disengagement.
Why is the offer of talks being spurned? Because the BJP feels that it
will hurt its chances in the forthcoming elections and Prime Minister
Atal Behari Vajpayee finds that he is riding a tiger. All the more
reason why he should encourage third party mediation. If he fears that
this will internationalise Kashmir, surely he must be aware that Kashmir
is already internationalised. Only semantic nitpicking and jugglery of
words holds up the Indian position. It has no basis in reality.
India like Pakistan owes its people something more than sabre-rattling.
It owes them a future free of want and deprivation and for at least half
the population of each country, owes them two square meals a day. Peace
does not just mean an absence of war. Peace means the chance for the
people of both countries to live less difficult lives. We do not want to
be trapped forever in grinding poverty. This is the time for
statesmanship.
The Lahore Declaration was a good start. It held out hope. It was a
beginning. It would be a shame if it was to be rendered null and void.
We cannot be seen to be forever making beginnings, to getting back to
square-one. We should be seen to be going forward. The Indian Prime
Minister should tell his people what the consequences of war will be and
then ask them whether they want war. I doubt that he would win the
elections; the enemy is not Pakistan but within. It is the poverty-line
and all the sorrows it brings.
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