The Kargil Fallout

By Kuldip Nayar


No war, however limited, is without a fallout. The Kargil fighting was

confined to one part of the Line or Control (LoC). Yet, its repercussions

will be far-reaching. Both India and Pakistan will feel tremors for a long

time to come. The biggest fallout will be in the political field.
 

Take India first. The main advantage of Kargil looks like going to the

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has

become taller in stature and he is generally seen as the person who led

the nation to victory. The BJP will gain because of his image.

His warning that Kargil should not be politicised has been of no avail.

Kushabhau Thakre, the BJP chief, and his other colleagues, are going all

over the country, receiving kudos for the job which the armed forces have

done. As the election campaign picks up pace, the BJP and its allies will

be more strident in their slogans of victorv.

Were they to stop at that, it would be less disconcerting. What is

dreadful is the mood of jingoism which is sought to be developed in the

country. It is nationalism in the name of communalism in reality. It has

manifested itself in different forms. One was the demonstration outside

the residence of Dilip Kumar to ask him to return the Nishan-e-Pakistan

award which late Prime Minister Morarji Desai also received.

Another was the thoughtless order by Information and Broadcasting Minister

Pramod Mahajan to ban the Pak TV channel which has now been lifted. Yet

another was the closure of web sites of two Pakistani newspapers, The

Nation and The Dawn. The Pakistani press has justifiably picked holes in

India`s liberalism. One of them has written: ''Denying people access to

the sources of information of their own choice characterises totalitarian

regimes and thus runs counter to India`s claim of being a democracy.``

 

Patriotism does not mean dittoing what a particular political party says

to reap dividends at the polls. Some people who are in the government do

not understand that India is a different type of society - open,

democratic and liberal. You may not agree with what a person says. Still

you defend his right to say it. Whatever the situation, the nation cannot

cannot demolish its values of tolerance and dissent, which are necessary

to stay pluralistic and democratic.``

 

The country solidly rallied behind the armed forces, not party which is

trying to hog the limelight. It is true that the nation was initially in a

state of shock. But once the armed forces put their act together, it

overcame the jolt. In the name of defence, nothing spurious should be

should be sold to it.

In fact, it goes to credit of the country that anger against Pakistan

never took the shape of anti-Muslim feelings. During wars in 1965 and

1971, the RSS and its parivar were able to foul the atmosphere. This time

even they did not dare to do so. On the other hand, the Muslims, who

generally stayed indoors during wars, were as much on the streets as the

Hindus to ventilate their disgust over the Pakistan aggression. Some

Muslims in the army have died on the front trying to oust the intruders.

In contrast to the BJP`s bellowing, other political parties have been

quiet. It has been difficult for them to do the balancing act: criticising

the government while supporting the war efforts. Now that the hostilities

are almost over, it may be free for all. The negligence part will oome to

the fore. The Congress should put its act together. It looks angry but

neither coherent nor rational. The bus diplomacy was not wrong;

Islamabad`s perfidy was. The waves the party was making once seem to have

subsided.

 

In Pakistan, a joke that is doing the rounds is that Nawaz Sherif intruded

in Kargil to help his friend, Vajpayee, to win the elections. Sharif`s

political opponents are not going to leave him alone. They may start an

agitation which may ultimately prepare the ground for the Pakistan

People`s Party chairperson, Benazir Bhutto, to return. Sharif has lost in

stature and even though his two-thirds majority is intact in the National

Assembly, Pakistan`s Lower House, dissidents within the party are growing

in number. The Ayub Gohar group is restive. Gohar has neither forgotten

nor forgiven Sharif for taking him away from the Foreign Affairs

portfolio.

 

The humiliation of Pakistani forces can lead to two things: one, the army

will be cut to size as it happened in the wake of defeat in the Bangladesh

war. Two, the army can lick its till such time as it gets an opportunity

to have its revenge on the rulers. One interesting sidelight which is

being projected abroad is that Sharif went along with the intrusion so as

to deal with the much-lionised army effectively once it got bruised.

 

The mujahideen are not such a problem as is being presented. Most of them

belong to the armed forces and the rest are Sharif`s own creatures,

depending on his generosity. Even those from Afghanistan or Sudan are

hired by the ISI. That they are not under Islamabad`s control or that they

are fighting for their independence are mere arguments to frighten the

West or to convey that Sharif is doing his best to tackle an impossible

situation - for example, what the terrorists have done in Bandipur, near

Srinagar, against the BSF.

 

The economy of both countries has been hit the most. India is in a bit

better position because of its size. But the fact remains that both sides

are spending crores and will be spending much more, famishing the fields

of education, health and employment.

 

My experienee is that the situation like the weather in the subcontinent

does not change materially: it is hot, hotter or the hottest. Sometimes, I

fear that Kargil may well be the Rann of Kutch-type operation, which was

followed by the 1965 war within a year. Lal Bahadur Shastri, then India`s

Prime Minister, had warned Pakistan that if it ever repeated the Rann of

Kutch, India would fight it at the place of its choosing. This happened in

1965 when he ordered the forces to march towards Lahore to relieve

pressure in Kashmir.

 

That Pakistan is an intransigent neighbour or that the fundamentalists and

the anti-lndia elements, there have been more influence than their number

is not a revelation. India knows this to its cost. Talks between India and

Pakistan may create an atmosphere where the beleaguered liberals, the

harassed journalists and others come to the side of peace and defeat those

who still talk in terms of Jehad and who want the two countries to end up

in a nuclear war. What Sharif should realise is that trust is not

something which can be switched on or off at will. Vajpayee feels let down

and he cannot sit across the table on his asking.

 

Even otherwise, the talks will have to wait till the elections in India

are over and the new govemment is in the saddle. That means sometime in

November. Even if the foreign secretary-level talks were to resume

immediately, they would be only perfunctory. A care-taker government

cannot take a decision which is the prerogative of an elected government.

It is difficult to assess the impact on their future relations, their

limited contacts and still more limited efforts towards normalcy. One

thing is sure: the atmosphere created in the wake of the meeting between

Vajpayee and Sharif at Lahore in February will not return for a long time

to come.

(Source: The India Network News Digest - July 21, 1999 Volume 11 Issue 140)


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