The Kargil FalloutBy Kuldip Nayar
No war, however limited, is without a fallout. The Kargil fighting was
confined to one part of the Line or Control (LoC). Yet, its repercussions
will be far-reaching. Both India and Pakistan will feel tremors for a long
time to come. The biggest fallout will be in the political field.
Take India first. The main advantage of Kargil looks like going to the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has
become taller in stature and he is generally seen as the person who led
the nation to victory. The BJP will gain because of his image.
His warning that Kargil should not be politicised has been of no avail.
Kushabhau Thakre, the BJP chief, and his other colleagues, are going all
over the country, receiving kudos for the job which the armed forces have
done. As the election campaign picks up pace, the BJP and its allies will
be more strident in their slogans of victorv.
Were they to stop at that, it would be less disconcerting. What is
dreadful is the mood of jingoism which is sought to be developed in the
country. It is nationalism in the name of communalism in reality. It has
manifested itself in different forms. One was the demonstration outside
the residence of Dilip Kumar to ask him to return the Nishan-e-Pakistan
award which late Prime Minister Morarji Desai also received.
Another was the thoughtless order by Information and Broadcasting Minister
Pramod Mahajan to ban the Pak TV channel which has now been lifted. Yet
another was the closure of web sites of two Pakistani newspapers, The
Nation and The Dawn. The Pakistani press has justifiably picked holes in
India`s liberalism. One of them has written: ''Denying people access to
the sources of information of their own choice characterises totalitarian
regimes and thus runs counter to India`s claim of being a democracy.``
Patriotism does not mean dittoing what a particular political party says
to reap dividends at the polls. Some people who are in the government do
not understand that India is a different type of society - open,
democratic and liberal. You may not agree with what a person says. Still
you defend his right to say it. Whatever the situation, the nation cannot
cannot demolish its values of tolerance and dissent, which are necessary
to stay pluralistic and democratic.``
The country solidly rallied behind the armed forces, not party which is
trying to hog the limelight. It is true that the nation was initially in a
state of shock. But once the armed forces put their act together, it
overcame the jolt. In the name of defence, nothing spurious should be
should be sold to it.
In fact, it goes to credit of the country that anger against Pakistan
never took the shape of anti-Muslim feelings. During wars in 1965 and
1971, the RSS and its parivar were able to foul the atmosphere. This time
even they did not dare to do so. On the other hand, the Muslims, who
generally stayed indoors during wars, were as much on the streets as the
Hindus to ventilate their disgust over the Pakistan aggression. Some
Muslims in the army have died on the front trying to oust the intruders.
In contrast to the BJP`s bellowing, other political parties have been
quiet. It has been difficult for them to do the balancing act: criticising
the government while supporting the war efforts. Now that the hostilities
are almost over, it may be free for all. The negligence part will oome to
the fore. The Congress should put its act together. It looks angry but
neither coherent nor rational. The bus diplomacy was not wrong;
Islamabad`s perfidy was. The waves the party was making once seem to have
subsided.
In Pakistan, a joke that is doing the rounds is that Nawaz Sherif intruded
in Kargil to help his friend, Vajpayee, to win the elections. Sharif`s
political opponents are not going to leave him alone. They may start an
agitation which may ultimately prepare the ground for the Pakistan
People`s Party chairperson, Benazir Bhutto, to return. Sharif has lost in
stature and even though his two-thirds majority is intact in the National
Assembly, Pakistan`s Lower House, dissidents within the party are growing
in number. The Ayub Gohar group is restive. Gohar has neither forgotten
nor forgiven Sharif for taking him away from the Foreign Affairs
portfolio.
The humiliation of Pakistani forces can lead to two things: one, the army
will be cut to size as it happened in the wake of defeat in the Bangladesh
war. Two, the army can lick its till such time as it gets an opportunity
to have its revenge on the rulers. One interesting sidelight which is
being projected abroad is that Sharif went along with the intrusion so as
to deal with the much-lionised army effectively once it got bruised.
The mujahideen are not such a problem as is being presented. Most of them
belong to the armed forces and the rest are Sharif`s own creatures,
depending on his generosity. Even those from Afghanistan or Sudan are
hired by the ISI. That they are not under Islamabad`s control or that they
are fighting for their independence are mere arguments to frighten the
West or to convey that Sharif is doing his best to tackle an impossible
situation - for example, what the terrorists have done in Bandipur, near
Srinagar, against the BSF.
The economy of both countries has been hit the most. India is in a bit
better position because of its size. But the fact remains that both sides
are spending crores and will be spending much more, famishing the fields
of education, health and employment.
My experienee is that the situation like the weather in the subcontinent
does not change materially: it is hot, hotter or the hottest. Sometimes, I
fear that Kargil may well be the Rann of Kutch-type operation, which was
followed by the 1965 war within a year. Lal Bahadur Shastri, then India`s
Prime Minister, had warned Pakistan that if it ever repeated the Rann of
Kutch, India would fight it at the place of its choosing. This happened in
1965 when he ordered the forces to march towards Lahore to relieve
pressure in Kashmir.
That Pakistan is an intransigent neighbour or that the fundamentalists and
the anti-lndia elements, there have been more influence than their number
is not a revelation. India knows this to its cost. Talks between India and
Pakistan may create an atmosphere where the beleaguered liberals, the
harassed journalists and others come to the side of peace and defeat those
who still talk in terms of Jehad and who want the two countries to end up
in a nuclear war. What Sharif should realise is that trust is not
something which can be switched on or off at will. Vajpayee feels let down
and he cannot sit across the table on his asking.
Even otherwise, the talks will have to wait till the elections in India
are over and the new govemment is in the saddle. That means sometime in
November. Even if the foreign secretary-level talks were to resume
immediately, they would be only perfunctory. A care-taker government
cannot take a decision which is the prerogative of an elected government.
It is difficult to assess the impact on their future relations, their
limited contacts and still more limited efforts towards normalcy. One
thing is sure: the atmosphere created in the wake of the meeting between
Vajpayee and Sharif at Lahore in February will not return for a long time
to come.
(Source: The India Network News Digest - July 21, 1999 Volume 11 Issue 140)
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